This model explores whether electric bus batteries can generate revenue through energy trading while the buses are parked. The concept leverages three revenue streams: spot arbitrage (buying electricity when cheap, selling when expensive), aFRR balancing services (providing automatic frequency regulation reserves to TSOs), and peak shaving (discharging stored energy during demand response events). The main upfront investment is the V2G bidirectional charger retrofit installed on each bus.
Revenue per bus (median)
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per year
Total fleet revenue (median)
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for selected fleet
Breakeven bus count
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to cover annual opex
EBITDA year 1
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at current fleet size
Key findings from the scenario model
Revenue model methodology
Revenue projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation (500 iterations) using actual Germany 2025 day-ahead and intraday 15-minute slot prices from the EPEX SPOT market. The simulation samples daily price spreads, applies round-trip efficiency losses, and models capacity payments and demand response events to generate a probability distribution of annual revenues. A uniform 3% annual inflation rate is applied to all revenues and costs from the base year 2027 onward.
Pilot team structure
For the pilot phase, we anticipate a lean team of 4–5 people: one founder focused on business development and partnerships with transport operators, one finance & legal hire handling contracts, regulatory compliance, and reporting, two technical staff for V2G hardware maintenance and bus fleet operations, plus one additional hire (tech or non-tech) for customer service, recruiting, or operational support as the pilot scales.
Fleet & Operational Parameters
⬆ City and pilot bus count are set in the top navigation bar — changes apply to all tabs simultaneously.
90%
20%
88%
80%
Median revenue
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P10 bear
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10% of sims below
P90 bull
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10% of sims above
Revenue / MWh
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Pilot fleet
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— buses · — kWh
Revenue distribution (500 simulations)
Revenue by source — median
P10 / Median / P90 range — 2027–2031
Revenue per bus (stacked, median)
Key Cost Assumptions — adjust sliders to see live impact on all three statements & investor returns
€0.08
8%
8,000 €
2
2
⚡ Battery lease: transport operator earns fixed fee per kWh capacity made available + revenue share to incentivise peak-hour bus availability. | HC: same headcount applied uniformly across 2027–2031. Detailed assumptions editable in the Assumptions tab.
✓ No model errors — P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow tie out
P&L waterfall (€k)
COGS breakdown (€k)
Profit & Loss Statement (EUR)
Asset composition (€k)
Equity build-up (€k)
Balance Sheet (EUR)
Cash flow components (€k)
Closing cash vs. covenant (€k)
Cash Flow Statement — Indirect Method (EUR)
Required investment to sustain operations
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Breakeven bus count
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buses needed to cover annual opex at current assumptions
IRR @ 30% / 16×: based on 30% ownership and 16× EV/EBITDA exit multiple. | NPV @ 20%: If you demand 20%/yr returns, this is how many extra euros this deal makes you vs. that alternative. Positive = beats your hurdle. | Cash-on-cash: Total cash you receive (operating dividends + exit) ÷ €1M invested. 3× means you tripled your money. | Terminal value: Estimated sale price of the whole business (2031 EBITDA × exit multiple). Your share is prorated by your ownership %.
IRR @ 30% / 16×
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Base case
NPV @ 20% hurdle
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Extra value vs 20%/yr alt.
Cash-on-cash
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Total returned ÷ required equity
Required equity raise
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Min. to sustain operations
2031 EBITDA
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Base for exit calc
Equity cash flows (€k) — 30% ownership base case
Value creation bridge (€k) — 30% ownership
How to read this: You invest €1 million in January 2027 in exchange for a % of the company (left axis — this is the key negotiation; the implied pre-money valuation is shown in brackets). At end of 2031 the business is sold at X × its 2031 EBITDA (top axis). Each cell shows your IRR (annualised return). Example: 30% ownership at 16× exit → IRR shown in the teal cell. The pre-money valuation embedded in each row tells you what you're implying the business is worth today for that ownership %.
IRR sensitivity — Investor ownership % (for €1M) vs EV/EBITDA exit multiple at end of 2031
Edit assumptions below. Changes are reflected immediately in the financial model.